Profcast

Probabilistic Nowcasting of Wind and Wind Profiles at the Vienna International Airport (Profcast)

Background

Airplanes can only land safely when crosswinds or tailwinds do not exceed certain thresholds. Air traffic control needs accurate forecasts of the wind field for the final descent from about 2 km above ground to the runway in order to direct airplanes to a safe landing. In addition, knowing ahead of time when and how the wind will shift allows air traffic control to maximize airport capacity and minimize delays for travelers.

Objectives and Methods

The goal of this project is to produce near-realtime probabilistic forecasts for wind speed and wind direction along the final approach paths and at the touch-down points of the Vienna International Airport. We will use advanced statistical regression models with input from measurements at the airport and its vicinity including surface observations, remote sensing and aircraft measurements (MODE-S/AMDAR) and additional input from numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems.

Project Leader: 
External Members: 

Project Leader: Achim Zeileis (Department of Statistics, UIBK)

Industrial Partner:

Markus Kerschbaum

Andreas Lanzinger

Martin Steinheimer

Lukas Strauss

(Austro Control Österreichische Gesellschaft für Zivilluftfahrt mit beschränkter Haftung)

Funding Agencies: 
• The Austrian Research Promotion Agency, project number FFG 858537
Project Duration: 
03/01/2017 to 02/29/2020