Numerical Weather Prediction systems lack skill in predicting convective events one day in advance. This project aims in improving the skill of prediction systems by top-notch statistical post-processing methods for the region of the Eastern Alps.
Major scientific questions to be answer are: On what spatial and temporal scales is convection predictible? Does predictability increase by taking benefit from pre-dominant flow patterns in the mountainious terrain?
For this purpose lightning serves as a proxy of convective events. The lightning data is received by state-of-the-art Lightning Detection Network established and maintained within the ALDIS project. The post-processing methods include both classic analog approaches and non-linear flexible regression methods.
Co-PI: Achim Zeileis (Department of Statistics, UIBK)
Industrial Partner: Gerhardt Diendorfer, Wolfgang Schulz (ALDIS)
The Austrian Research Promotion Agency FFG 846620
09/01/2015 to 09/30/2018
Spatio-temporal modelling of lightning climatologies for complex terrain. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 17, 305 - 314, doi:10.5194/nhess-17-305-2017. http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/17/305/2017/http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/17/305/2017/nhess-17-305-2017.pdf., 2017: