Second Generation Model Output Statistics (S-MOS)

The project will  develop an objective  weather forecasting system for temperature, humidity, wind, precipitation, sunshine duration, and specific weather conditions that affect fruit and wine growing and dairy farming in South Tyrol and implement it operationally at the weather forecast office in South Tyrol.
It aims at improving and developing systems that automatically 
postprocess output from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and project it onto point locations  as an additional support to human forecasters. The big step forward through this project will be a thoroughly evaluated operational second-generation MOS (Model Output Statistics) with the latest statistical methods  used in meteorological applications and newly developed methods in the framework of the project, which also integrates information about the uncertainty of the forecast. 
The benefits from using the latest NWP model versus one with long-term reforecast will be investigated.  Different methods will be rigorously evaluated using a set of verification measures and compared to the results from a first generation MOS system. 
Project Leader: 
External Members: 
Co-PI: Zeileis Achim (Department of Statistics, University of Innsbruck)
Funding Agencies: 
Autonome Provinz Bozen - Abteilung Bildungsförderung, Universität und Forschung ORBZ110725
Project Duration: 
12/02/2013 to 11/30/2016




Dabernig, M., G. J. ; Mayr, J. W. ; Messner, and A. Zeileis, 2016: Spatial Ensemble Post-Processing with Standardized Anomalie. Working Papers in Economics and Statistics - University of Innsbruck, No. 2016-08.